Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Pharmaceutical Industry (2019–2025): A Descriptive and Inferential Statistical Analysis of Decoupling, Intensity Metrics, and Supply Chain Challenges – Part I

Surinder Deswal¹, Phalguni Deswal²

¹ Professor, Civil Engineering Department, National Institute of Technology Kurukshetra, India.

² Independent Researcher, India. 

Abstract

The pharmaceutical industry’s contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions presents a critical paradox: an inherently health-oriented sector whose operations generate substantial environmental burden. This study presents a comprehensive descriptive and inferential statistical analysis of GHG emissions data from 14 major pharmaceutical companies over 2019–2025, examining emissions trajectories, structural composition, intensity metrics, and drivers of energy intensity. Analysis reveals that Scope 3 emissions dominate carbon footprints, averaging 5.1 million  – approximately 8.7 times greater than Scopes 1 and 2 (combined) mean value. While operational emissions (Scopes 1 and 2) declined substantially, with mean reductions of 41.3% and 61.4% in emissions intensity, respectively, Scope 3 emissions intensity showed only marginal improvement (mean: -17.7%, median: -22.1%). Upstream emissions, particularly purchased goods and services (Category 1), averaged 80.9% of Scope 3 footprints, highlighting supply chain decarbonisation as the primary challenge. While relative decoupling is evident across the sector, absolute decoupling remains elusive, with only 5 of 14 companies exhibiting true decoupling (decoupling ratio >3.0). Correlation analysis revealed moderate negative relationships between revenue and operational emissions intensity (Scope 1: r = -0.42, p < 0.01; Scope 2: r = -0.38, p < 0.01), but no significant correlation with Scope 3 intensity (r = -0.12, p = 0.28). The energy intensity of pharmaceutical manufacturing – driven by cleanroom HVAC systems consuming 50–75% of facility energy – emerges as a critical constraint on Scope 1 reduction. The findings suggest the pharmaceutical industry is progressing toward operational decarbonisation but faces fundamental structural challenges in addressing value chain emissions, with implied warming trajectories diverging between operational (1.5°C-aligned) and supply chain (2°C-aligned) performance. The results of the study carry implications for supplier engagement, process innovation, and collaborative industry action.   
Keywords: Pharmaceutical industry, GHG emissions, Scope 3 emissions, Emissions intensity, Energy intensity, Cleanroom energy consumption, Decoupling ratio, Supply chain decarbonisation

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