Effects of Climate Variability on Arable Crops Farming Profitability in Oyo and Ogun States, Nigeria

Emmanuel Olatubosun Sowunmi¹, Luke O. Okojie², Samuel A. Adewuyi³

¹Ph.D. Research Scholar, Banking and Finance, D. S. Adegbenro ICT Polytechnic, Itori-Ewekoro, Nigeria.

^2,3Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria. 

Abstract

This study examines the effects of climate variability on crop yields, farm profitability, and farmer livelihoods in Oyo and Ogun States, Nigeria. A multistage sampling procedure was used to select 392 respondents. Primary data was sourced from the sampled arable crop farmers, while secondary data on climatic conditions, temperature and rainfall variations and patterns were gathered from the geo-information pool. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, climate variability indices, and multiple linear regression. Results revealed that 57.9% of the respondents were male, 71.7% had tertiary education, 42.1% were married, and the major occupation was farming (78.6%), with a mean age, household size and monthly farm income of 40 years, 4 persons and ₦86,275.51, respectively. The average Net Farm Income (NFI) and Returns on Investment (ROI) of the respondents were ₦160,561.26 and 40.04, respectively. Although 51.3% of the respondents had low awareness of climatic variability, about half (51.0%) of the respondents and 44.6% reported that reduced crop yields and decreased market value of crop yields were the major effects of climatic variability on arable crops in the study area. Climate variability indices recorded a higher variation in Ogun State (0.79) compared to Oyo State (0.29). Regression analysis indicates that temperature fluctuations (β = -0.067, p<0.05) and rainfall variability significantly reduced farm profitability. The most common adaptation strategies used by the respondents were intercropping (48.5%), agroforestry (17.9%) and use of improved crop varieties (17.9%), respectively. The study concludes that climate variability negatively affects arable farming profitability, necessitating effective mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Climate variability, arable crops, farm profitability, regression analysis.

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